Published October 2, 2026 | Version v1
Software Restricted

SCOPE, bio-SCOPE and FST-SCOPE: a spatial price-equilibrium model of the global crude oil market with biomass and forward-contract layers

Authors/Creators

  • 1. EDMO icon ETH Zürich
  • 2. ROR icon NCCR Catalysis
  • 3. ROR icon Harvard University
  • 4. Columbia University Business School

Description

A Takayama–Judge spatial price-equilibrium model of the global crude oil market, solved daily over a 518-day horizon on a network of 2,662 oil fields, 537 refineries, 279 ports and 4,974 pipeline endpoints.

Three nested scenarios: crude only (SC1), with a biomass-to-syncrude spot market (SC2), and with a forward-contract market for syncrude (SC3). Applied to a 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz and calibrated against 183 daily closes of Europe Brent Spot FOB from 2 January to 22 September 2026.

The archive contains the model, the input data it needs, the reference results for every reported value, and the scripts that draw the paper's three figures, which are included. README.md gives the commands; RESULTS.md gives each reported value and the command that produces it; DATA_SOURCES.md gives the provenance of every input.

Running a scenario needs Python 3.9 or later and the pinned packages in requirements.txt. A 518-day scenario takes 20 to 45 minutes.

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