IPCRF v1.2 Public Historical Back-Test — Case Study 1: NYCT ADA Station Improvements, MTA Project 8356

This technical case study presents a retrospective public-data historical back-test of the Integrated Project Controls and Risk Forecasting Framework (IPCRF), Version 1.2, using Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) records for the NYCT ADA Station Improvements at the 149 St–Grand Concourse Complex and Tremont Av (MTA Project 8356).
The analysis applies the frozen IPCRF Version 1.2 methodology to contemporaneous historical project records without modifying thresholds, weights, formulas, or action bands after the project outcome became known. The case focuses on the framework’s Finish Slippage indicator. On February 21, 2023, the published forecast completion date had moved 184 days beyond the original July 1, 2023 baseline completion date, producing a Finish Slippage value of 17.29% and a Critical IPCRF score of 100. This signal occurred 130 days before the original baseline completion date. Subsequent public records showed further deterioration, with an estimated completion date of June 30, 2026.

This case provides indicator-level historical evidence for the behavior of the frozen IPCRF schedule-warning logic on a real U.S. transit capital project. It does not establish full six-domain predictive validity, a complete Project Delivery Risk Score (PDRS), Forecast Confidence Score (FCS), calibrated false-positive or false-negative rates, or universal predictive accuracy because the public record does not contain all quantitative inputs required by the full IPCRF methodology.

The repository package includes the technical case-study report, reproducibility workbook, machine-readable analysis dataset, source-provenance register, and README documentation. Only publicly available records are used; unavailable variables are not inferred or fabricated. No MTA, transit-agency, or governmental participation, sponsorship, review, or endorsement is implied.