Data and R code for: Dependence on China and the Stability of a Critical Mineral Export: Shipment-Level Evidence from Peruvian Copper Ore, 2006–2025

Data and R code that reproduce all tables and figures of the article "Dependence on China and the Stability of a Critical Mineral Export: Shipment-Level Evidence from Peruvian Copper Ore, 2006–2025" and of its Supplementary Material.

The package contains the shipment-level extract of Peruvian exports of copper ores and concentrates (HS 2603.00.00.00) from PromPerú's Infotrade platform, based on SUNAT export customs declarations, January 2006 – December 2025, validated month by month against PromPerú's official totals (23,106 shipments; 22,582 commercial shipments by 200 firms to 44 destinations, USD 219.3 billion FOB, in the analysis). It also includes the log of pagination corrections, the review of destination codes, monthly controls (World Bank Pink Sheet copper price; BCRP real exchange rate and copper production), a table on the context of the largest exporters, the processed datasets, and all outputs.

The R pipeline (run_all.R) computes destination-market concentration (HHI, China's share), export instability indicators, Bai–Perron structural breaks, decade comparisons with Newey–West inference, quarterly concentration–instability models, a firm–year panel with firm and year fixed effects, and Kaplan–Meier and Cox survival models of firm–destination relationships.

Exporters who are natural persons (18 of 266 RUCs; 90 shipments) are pseudonymized; the replacement is one-to-one and does not change any result. The firm–destination–month dataset obtained from SUNAT through an access-to-information request, used only for cross-validation, is not redistributed. See README.md for details.