Underutilized Labor in the Oversized Trade Sector as a Reserve for Addressing Staff Shortages: Regional and Sectoral Analysis

Introduction. The Russian economy remains structurally imbalanced: employment in retail significantly exceeds that in manufacturing, exacerbating the labor shortage in the real sector, estimated at 3.4 million people. The purpose of this study is to clarify the regional and specific structure of retail redundancy in order to formulate targeted regulatory measures.
Materials and Methods. The study's information base included data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Tax Service's Geochecki (“Geo-Receipts”) system, the Moscow Government's Open Data Portal, and statistical tax reporting. Spatial visual analysis, comparative assessment of per-employee markup indicators and hourly revenue distribution, and logical modeling of the eff ects of management decisions were used.
Results. It was found that half of the excess employment in retail (approximately 1.75 million people) is concentrated in the fi ve most populous regions. Low productivity was observed among individual entrepreneurs, whose peremployee markup is fi ve times lower than that of large chains. Non-food retail efficiency was shown to be 2.5 times lower than that of grocery retail; supermarkets' peremployee markup is 3.4 times lower than that of minimarkets. Spatial analysis revealed an uneven distribution of non-food retail outlets, which are concentrated in limited locations, struggle to compete with online marketplaces, and operate inefficiently – staying open 12 hours a day, seven days a week. It was noted that 17 % of these outlets fall into overrepresented categories such as vape shops, fl ower shops, and pharmacies.
Conclusion. The obtained results provide the basis for a regional policy to redistribute labor resources and optimize excess retail formats. The proposed measures, including differentiated work schedules and a targeted reduction in the concentration of non-food retail outlets, will free up to 2.8 million people without compromising the availability of goods, thereby contributing to the structural transformation of the economy and reducing labor shortages in manufacturing sectors.