Super El Niño can raise coastal extreme sea-level risk tenfold

Replication Materials for Super El Niño can raise coastal extreme sea-level risk tenfold

This repository provides all processed data, execution notebooks, and helper code required to regenerate the figures, tables, and 2026–27 extreme sea-level risk projections presented in the manuscript and Supplementary Information.

Overview & Quick Start

• Key Notebooks: Run main.ipynb, ENSO_coastal_supp.ipynb, or projection_example.ipynb (approx. 30 seconds each) to recreate figure panels, table statistics, and site-level projections.

• Sample Code: See sample_processing_code/ for lightweight scripts demonstrating core methods, including risk ratio calculation ($RR_{EE}$), donor-based Shapley split, and background projection.

• Data & Output Folders: Contains derived inputs (data/), figure plot files (figures/), source data tables (source_data/), and site projection outputs (projection.csv).

• Environment: Python 3.13 using standard scientific packages (numpy, pandas, scipy, matplotlib, cartopy, pyyaml, pyarrow).

Please refer to the complete README in this directory for detailed information on:

• Full folder paths and file listings

• Variable schemas and column definitions for projection.csv

• Raw data sources and index definitions (RONI vs. Niño-3.4)

If you wish to access raw data processing scripts, contact thomas.monahan@eng.ox.ac.uk.