China Express-Parcel Province-Month Forecasting Data and Code (2022–2025)

This deposit contains the public-data reconstruction, processed tables, analysis scripts, figures, and supplementary tables supporting a study of China's express-parcel volume during 2022-2025.

The dataset covers 31 mainland provinces and a national aggregate using public National Postal Bureau and National Bureau of Statistics sources. It includes provincial monthly, cumulative, and annual tables; 2024 validation and 2025 frozen test forecasts; a 2024 statistical-definition break audit; sensitivity results; publication figures; and scripts for full reproduction.

June and July 2022 province-month values that cannot be separated from published cumulative tables are retained as missing and are not imputed. The analysis compares last-month and seasonal-naive baselines with Ridge and LightGBM forecasts. It does not claim causal effects or logistics-efficiency improvements.

Derived data and figures are licensed under CC BY 4.0. Analysis scripts are licensed under the MIT License. Source URLs, a data dictionary, and license files are included in the deposit.