Published September 26, 2026 | Version v1

Replication materials for Target-driven Bayesian stacking of realised and implied volatility forecasts

  • 1. Department of Statistics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain
  • 2. Department of Statistics and Instituto Flores de Lemus, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain
  • 3. BRU-IUL, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Portugal

Description

Replication code and evaluation data accompanying the article in Economics Letters, volume 268, article 113166 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113166). The default offline route reproduces the main table and figure and all six appendix tables from included window-level evaluations and daily predictive losses. An additional route refits LPD and QLIKE stacking weights and recalculates certainty-equivalent returns, VaR violation rates and daily QLIKE losses from saved predictive arrays and lawfully obtained market observations, without rerunning MCMC. Those predictive arrays and licensed market observations are external inputs and are not included in this archive. The README documents input definitions, units, sample periods, random seeds, the tested software environment and run commands. Original materials are licensed under CC BY 4.0; this license does not grant rights in third-party source data.

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Is supplement to
Journal article: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113166 (DOI)