Limits of Russian Endurance in a War of Attrition: A Panel on the Fiscal Incidence of the War

A quantitative panel tracking the fiscal incidence of Russia's war in Ukraine: 
who bears the cost, through which mechanisms, and how much room remains in each.

The federal budget is one accounting perimeter; the obligation sits on a system. 
Counted across the federal centre, the regions, the funds, systemic state companies, 
the defence industry and the social envelope, the 2026 requirement — the Consolidated 
State Claim — is RUB 16.1 trn: 40% of federal budget revenue, and about 96% of 
everything budgeted for defence and internal security combined. Working range 
RUB 13.1–18.9 trn.

The panel comprises twelve principal indicators across fiscal, monetary, energy, 
military and societal circuits, three ordinal ladders, a manifestation matrix, and 
three logs recording what stopped being published, what was paid for, and what was 
given back. Every rung marked as passed is anchored to an observable act: an 
administrative decision, a payment, a legal instrument. Where the panel makes a 
forward-looking assessment, the falsification condition and the check date are 
published in advance. Findings that cut against the panel's own thesis are 
published first.

Data as of 21 August 2026. Partial update 12 September 2026. Budget execution January–July 2026. National Wealth 
Fund as of 1 August 2026.

Published in three parallel language editions — English, Ukrainian and Russian — 
as self-contained HTML files with identical data, plus PDF renderings of each, and a one-page summary of the whole panel.

Live version: https://incidence.world