Published September 17, 2026 | Version v1.0
Working paper Open

Safe Withdrawal Rates in Brazil, 1968-2026 - Historical Evidence from the Ibovespa and Caderneta de Poupança

Authors/Creators

  • 1. independent researcher

Description

This paper reconstructs a monthly Brazilian retirement-return panel from January 1968 through August 2026 and estimates historically sustainable fixed real withdrawal rates. The panel combines the Ibovespa gross total return equity index with Caderneta de Poupança as a conservative asset. IGP-DI is the baseline deflator for the full sample; IPCA is used from 1980 onward.

Across complete monthly cohorts, maximum 30, 40, and 50-year safe withdrawal rates on a 10pp grid are 3.71%, 3.27%, and 2.98%. Annual replication of Bengen (1994) gives 3.43% for 50% Ibovespa / 50% Poupança. On Bengen's 25-point grid the peak is 3.98% at 25% / 75%. A 48-month moving-block bootstrap with 50,000 paths yields 95%-success maxima of 2.42%, 1.84%, and 1.51%.

Files

AA40_Safe_Withdrawal_Rates_Brazil_1968_2026_paper_final.pdf

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Additional details

Related works

Is described by
Publication: 10.5281/zenodo.22821998 (DOI)
Is supplemented by
Software: https://www.aposenteaos40.org (URL)

Dates

Collected
1968-01/2026-08
Baseline monthly panel
Created
2026-09-17
Final PDF creation
Collected
1968-01-01/2026-08-31
Complete cohorts for SWR

References

  • Bengen, W.P. (1994). Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data. Journal of Financial Planning.
  • Cooley, P.L., Hubbard, C.M., Walz, D.T. (1998). Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable. AAII Journal.
  • Pfau, W.D. (2010). An International Perspective on Safe Withdrawal Rates. Pereira, Perlin (2023). Brazilian Trinity adaptation.
  • Castro, Eid Junior, Santana, Yoshinaga (2019). Fifty-year history of Ibovespa 1968-2017. Araújo, Brito, Sanvicente (2021). Long-run returns 1968-2019.