Published August 31, 2026 | Version 1.0.0

The Model Hedges Most When It's Most Sure

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Atom Foundry

Description

Candidate Evaluation showed what changes a contested recommendation.

This study asks whether the model's verbal hedging tracks its actual confidence.

Seven independent methods attack the question from different angles on the same 16 fixed scenarios.

Hedge language showed almost no correlation with real internal confidence, while the recommendation itself remained highly stable across phrasing and model changes.

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2026-08-Recommendation-Confidence.zip

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Is part of
Publication: 10.5281/zenodo.22753415 (DOI)