Operational Geospatial Assessment of Ukraine's Agrosphere at the Beginning of Autumn 2026

This analytical report "Operational Geospatial Assessment of Ukraine’s Agrosphere at the Beginning of Autumn 2026" provides an operational geospatial assessment of Ukraine’s agrosphere at the beginning of autumn 2026 based on open-access satellite and agroclimatic datasets. The assessment focuses on the temperature regime, precipitation, soil-moisture conditions in the seedbed and one-metre soil layers, drought occurrence, and vegetation dynamics, with comparisons against the corresponding period of 2025 and long-term climatological averages. Spring SMAP observations indicated that moisture reserves in the one-metre soil profile were close to sufficient levels across most of Ukraine, providing favourable initial conditions for the formation of early cereal yields. By early September 2026, temperatures across almost the entire country were approximately 3–5 °C above the 1970–2000 mean, although western Ukraine was slightly cooler than during the same period in 2025. During 1–6 September, precipitation totals were generally somewhat higher than in 2025; however, critically low amounts were recorded in several central, southern, and eastern regions. Compared with long-term conditions, weekly precipitation deficits of 5–25 mm prevailed across much of the country. Volumetric soil moisture in the 0–5 cm seedbed layer remained low, reaching up to 0.15 m³/m³, with critically low values of up to 0.05 m³/m³ in western regions. Moisture in the one-metre soil profile ranged from critically low levels in western and north-western Ukraine to satisfactory values of approximately 0.30 m³/m³ in the south. Despite these moisture constraints, the SPI-based assessment indicated a generally low level of drought occurrence, with mild to moderate drought confined to selected regions. NDVI values toward the end of the growing season exceeded those of 2025 in several areas, particularly in southern Ukraine, while values during the first half of the 2026 growing season were higher than both the corresponding 2025 values and the long-term average. Overall, the available climatic agro-resources at the beginning of autumn 2026 were generally sufficient for winter-crop sowing and for the formation and maturation of late-season crop yields.