Published October 2, 2018
| Version v1
Conference paper
Open
When will autonomous ships arrive? A technological forecasting perspective
Creators
- 1. Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
- 2. Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands; United States Air Force Office of Scientific Research, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States
Description
Autonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies are data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS precision required for autonomous mooring is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a range of 2026-2041, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2037 and 2101. Finally, the cost of a medium speed diesel engine and an LT-PEMFC Fuel Cell will be approximately equal somewhere between 2025 and 2060.
Files
INEC 2018 Paper 022 Kooij SDG FINAL.pdf
Files
(2.8 MB)
| Name | Size | Download all |
|---|---|---|
|
md5:679bcb6a19c758b96a6eae8edece7a83
|
2.8 MB | Preview Download |
Additional details
References
- Allen, S., Ashey, E., Gore, D., Woerner, J., & Cervi, M. (1998). Marine applications of fuel cells. Oceans'02 Mts/Ieee, (January), 93–106. Retrieved from http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/asne/nej/1998/00000110/00000001/art00011
- Amaya, M. A., & Magee, C. L. (2008). The progress in wireless data transport and its role in the evolving internet. ESD Working Paper, (November).
- Benson, C. L. (2014). Cross-domain comparison of quantitative technology improvement using patent derived characteristics.
- Christian Wienberg. (2018). Maersk's CEO Can't Imagine Self-Sailing Box Ships in His Lifetime - Bloomberg. Retrieved May 17, 2018, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/maersk-ceo-can-t-imagine-self-sailing-box-ships-in-his-lifetime
- European Competition Commision. (2009). Terminal Handling charges during and after the liner conference era. European Competition Commision. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/competition/sectors/transport/reports/terminal_handling_charges.pdf
- F. Lundoluka, R. Hekkenberg, H. Blaauw, M. . an R. (2005). Presenting performances of inland navigation, 0, 1–58.
- Farmer, J. D., & Lafond, F. (2016). How predictable is technological progress? Research Policy, 45(3), 647–665. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001
- Kongsberg. (n.d.). Autonomous ship project, key facts about YARA Birkeland - Kongsberg Maritime.
- Kooij, C., Loonstijn, M., Hekkenberg, R. G., & Visser, K. (2018). Towards autonomous shipping: operational challenges of unmanned short sea cargo vessels, 10.
- Låg, S., Andersen, P., Vartdal, B.-J., & Knutsen, K. E. (2015). Ship Connectivity. DNV GL Strategic Research & Innovation Position Paper, 4, 1–48. Retrieved from https://www.dnvgl.com/Images/DNV GL - Ship Connectivity_tcm8-56026.pdf
- Ligteringen, H. (1999). Ports and Terminals. Ports & Terminals.
- Lloyd's Register Group Limited, QinetiQ, & University of Southampton. (2015). Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 Global Marine Technology Trends 2030, 96.
- Lloyds Register, QinetiQ, & University of Southhampton. (2017). Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 - Autonomous Systems.
- Minnehan, J. J., & Pratt, J. W. (2017). Practical Application Limits of Fuel Cells and Batteries for Zero Emission Vessels.
- Moore, G. E. (1965). Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. Proceedings of the IEEE, 86(1), 82–85. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.1998.658762
- Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M., & Trancik, J. E. (2013). Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669
- Porathe, T., Prison, J., & Man, Y. (2014). Situation awareness in remote control centres for unmanned ships. Human Factors in Ship Design & Operation, (February), 1–9.
- Port Strategy. (2018). Port Strategy | Substantial retrofit terminal automation potential. Retrieved May 25, 2018, from http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/port-operations/port-performance/substantial-retrofit-terminal-automation-potential
- Rødseth, O. J., Kvamstad, B., Porathe, T., & Burmeister, H. C. (2013). Communication architecture for an unmanned merchant ship. OCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension, (314286). https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS-Bergen.2013.6608075
- Rolls-Royce. (2016). Autonomous ships: The next step. AAWA: Advanced Autonomous Waterborne Applications, 7.
- Schaller, R. R. (1997). Moore's Law: past , present , future. IEEE Spectrum, 34(6), 52–59. https://doi.org/10.1109/6.591665
- Seebregts, A., Kram, T., Schaeffer, G. J., & Bos, A. (2000). Endogenous learning and technology clustering: Analysis with MARKAL model of the Western European energy system. International Journal of Global Energy Issues.
- Smart, A. (2013). Precise positioning services in the maritime sector. Department of Innovation, Industry, Climate Change Science, Research and Tertiary Education, ACIL Allen Consulting. Retrieved from http://www.ignss.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=8%2FOX44UyLhk%3D&tabid=56. Date Assessed date: 07/08/ 2017
- Stapersma, D. (2010). Diesel Engines Volume 1 Performance Analysis January 2010, 1(January).
- Stopford, M. (1988). Maritime Economics (3rd ed.). Abingdon: Routledge.
- Todd, D. (1994). Changing technology, economic growth and port development: the transformation of Tianjin. Geoforum, 25(3), 285–303. Retrieved from http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0028571184&partnerID=40&md5=bb79dc6296bc45a5f11f33a492c411dc
- Triulzi, G., Alstott, J., & Magee, C. L. (2017). Predicting Technology Performance Improvement Rates by Mining Patent Data. Ssrn. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2987588
- Tuczynski, K. (2009). Satellite Internet At Sea: Hardware, Airtime, and Pricing. Retrieved May 6, 2018, from http://www.globalmarinenet.com/satellite-internet-at-sea-hardware-airtime-and-pricing/
- US Air Force. (2017). GPS.gov: GPS Accuracy. Retrieved May 9, 2018, from https://www.gps.gov/systems/gps/performance/accuracy/
- van Biert, L., Godjevac, M., Visser, K., & Aravind, P. V. (2016). A review of fuel cell systems for maritime applications. Journal of Power Sources, 327(X), 345–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2016.07.007
- Wilson, A., Kleen, G., Papageorgopoulos, D., Ahluwalia, R., James, B., Houchins, C., & Huya-Kouadio, J. (2017). DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Record Title: Fuel Cell System Cost, 1–12. Retrieved from https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/17007_fuel_cell_system_cost_2017.pdf%0Ahttps://www.hydrogen.energy.gov