Detector-Threshold Calibration and Statistical Post-Processing of a Vortex-Day Predictor for Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity: Code and derived results

Analysis code and frozen derived results accompanying the manuscript Detector-Threshold Calibration and Statistical Post-Processing of a Vortex-Day Predictor for Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity.

The package evaluates detector-threshold calibration and statistical post-processing of coarse-grid vortex-day predictors for subseasonal tropical cyclone activity. It includes the calibration comparisons, sensitivity and cross-system analyses, ten-member lead-time diagnostics, forecast-index comparison, predictor-distribution diagnostics, figure builders and verification tools.

This version is synchronized with the 5 September 2026 manuscript snapshot. All ten printed figures can be rebuilt from the included results. The read-only verification script checks the ten embedded-image hashes and 204 selected table values independently extracted from the Word manuscript and supporting information. The manuscript files themselves are not included.

Reproducibility boundary: this is a code-and-results release, not a self-contained rerun from raw data. Forecast fields, forecast detection archives, per-case forecast predictors and competition labels are not redistributed. Recomputing analyses requires external inputs; the README and MANIFEST document missing inputs and input-generation limitations. Historical results retained for reproduction guards are distinguished from current results.

Licensing: Python source code is licensed under BSD 3-Clause; derived data are licensed under CC BY 4.0, with upstream attributions and scope specified in the included LICENSE. These licenses apply to their respective components, not as interchangeable licenses for the entire package. No rights in upstream forecast models or undistributed data are granted.

Creator of this code-and-results deposit: Qifeng Qian. Version: v1.0.0. This deposit is not a publication of the manuscript.