Testing the Col de la Traversette and Little St Bernard Hypotheses for Hannibal's Alpine Crossing in 218 BC: Historical Identification, Energetic Efficiency, Operational Robustness, and Evidential Asymmetry: An Integrated Reference Framework and Evidence Base

This study compares the Col de la Traversette and Little St Bernard hypotheses for Hannibal’s Alpine crossing in 218 BC from chronological, tactical, logistical, geological, engineering, biological, and human perspectives. It distinguishes feasibility, operational robustness, and route identification. The Traversette evidence is evaluated by separating sterols, stanols, bile acids, microbial signatures, and sedimentary indicators rather than treating them as a single biological signal. Engineering scenarios distinguish the clearance of loose schistose debris from the movement of large metabasalt blocks or excavation through intact rock, while transport-capacity models examine the propagation of delays under progressive attrition. The analysis indicates that the Traversette possesses distinctive evidence, including its severe descent, two-tier rockfall, and disputed mass-animal horizon, but is more vulnerable to interacting delays, supply constraints, command disruption, and engineering difficulties. In contrast, the Little St Bernard offers greater operational resilience because of its lower elevation, although it lacks comparably investigated event-specific evidence. Neither route can presently be demonstrated with certainty. The study therefore argues that evidential distinctiveness should be evaluated separately from operational robustness when assessing competing hypotheses for Hannibal’s Alpine crossing.

【Version 2】
This substantially expanded version strengthens and updates the comparison of the Col de la Traversette and Little St Bernard hypotheses. It incorporates recent 2026 movement-ecology evidence, separates historical identification, event-specific evidential distinctiveness, direct energetic efficiency, and operational robustness, and introduces a formal evidential hierarchy and inference-firewall framework. The revision also substantially expands the assessment of the Little St Bernard archaeological and palaeoenvironmental evidence, adds contradictory evidence and replication/provenance analysis, and incorporates a structured comparative evidence base and variable dictionary. The central conclusion is refined accordingly: neither route is presently demonstrated as Hannibal’s route, and decisive discrimination requires symmetric measurement and event-specific testing across candidate corridors.

【Previous Publications by the  Author】
1.0 Family-Office Differentiation among the Gōshi Class in Early Modern Northern Sanriku under the Morioka Domain: The Oda Family’s Matsugawara Main House and Ichō-no-ki Branch House in Sources Related to the Noda-dōri Magistrate Office

This study examines how administrative, documentary, economic, and coordinating functions were distributed between different branches of a local gōshi family. It provides a microhistorical account of how practical competences could be preserved and differentiated within households and local society.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20182480

2.0 Layered Institutional Accumulation and the Conditions of Productive Fragmentation: Japan, China, and Modernization Pathways in Comparative-Historical Perspective

This study develops the concept of layered institutional accumulation and examines how political fragmentation, regional institutions, and historical continuity shaped different modernization pathways in Japan and China. It provides a broader comparative-historical background for examining the preservation and redirection of accumulated capabilities.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20564716

3.0 Administrative Capacity Mobilization and Japan’s Modern State Formation: Incomplete Political Integration, Layered Institutional Accumulation, and the Direction of Local Competences in Comparative-Historical Perspective

This study examines how administrative competences formed under earlier political arrangements were preserved, reclassified, and mobilized during modern Japanese state formation. It provides a related application of capability preservation and institutional redirection in a different historical setting.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21276293