Urban Food Systems 2040. A Strategic Guide to Navigating Uncertain Futures

Developed as part of the EU-funded FoodCityBoost project, this report delivers a strategic foresight analysis exploring the future of urban agriculture and urban food systems toward 2040. Synthesizing 20 systemic influencing factors and inputs from six European Living Labs via STEEP horizon scanning, cross-impact, and consistency analyses, the publication establishes four internally consistent future scenarios: Sustainable Scenography (centralized, symbolic niche farming), Green Autonomy (community-driven, policy-supported hybrid food systems), Patchwork Production (fragmented, bottom-up localized practices), and High-Tech Circular City (AI- and corporate-led automated food production). The guide also introduces the Urban Food Futures Navigator, an interactive self-assessment framework designed to help policymakers, urban planners, researchers, and civil society evaluate where their local food environments currently stand and navigate long-term urban resilience amidst uncertainty.