ESPO-G6-post2100 v1: Ensemble de Simulations Post-traitées d'Ouranos - Modèles Globaux post-2100 / Ouranos Ensemble of Bias-adjusted Simulations - Global models post-2100

Context

The need to adapt to climate change is present in a growing number of fields, leading to an increase in the demand for climate scenarios for often interrelated sectors of activity. In order to meet this growing demand and to ensure the availability of climate scenarios responding to numerous vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) studies, Ouranos is working to create a set of operational multipurpose bias-adjusted climate simulations called "Ensemble de Simulations Post-traitées d'Ouranos" (ESPO). The purpose of this dataset is to provide an ensemble extending to 2300 that can be used to assess long-term adaptation options.

Dataset

ESPO-G6-post2100 is a small ensemble of CMIP6 simulations extending to 2300 with variables for minimum daily temperature, maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation (tasmin, tasmax, pr). Beyond the ensemble composition, the main difference with ESPO-G6-R2 v1 is the reference dataset, updated to the latest version of the Canadian Surface Reanalysis (CaSR v3.2).

Changes from ESPO-G6-R2 v1.0:

• Covers the period from 1950 to 2300;
• Reference dataset updated from CaSR v2.1 to CaSR v3.2;
• Fix bug on adapt freq (https://github.com/Ouranosinc/ESPO-G/issues/8)
• Workflow executed using snakemake

Data access

Data is available in netCDF on PAVICS: https://pavics.ouranos.ca/twitcher/ows/proxy/thredds/catalog/birdhouse/disk3/ouranos/ESPO-G/ESPO-G6-post2100_v1.0/catalog.html

Method

The code performs the bias-adjustment on the raw simulations to create the ESPO-G6-post2100 v1.0.0 ensemble. First, each simulation is regridded with a bilinear interpolation in cascades onto the CaSR v3.2 reference grid. Then, they are adjusted following the Detrended Quantile Mapping procedure. The adjustment is performed on tasmax, pr and dtr (daily temperature range). The variable tasmin is reconstructed from tasmax and dtr. The three variables are then assembled to create the official timeseries.

Branch: post-2100-narval

History: Ran in 2026-03 within conda environment xscen-0.13.

References

ESPO-G6-R2 v1.0 is described in Lavoie et al. (2024).