Energy System Uncertainty Catalog

Bala Krishnan, Rohith

doi:10.5281/zenodo.21931004

Published August 14, 2026 | Version v1.0.0

Dataset Open

Energy System Uncertainty Catalog

Bala Krishnan, Rohith (Researcher)^{1, 2}

1. Institute of Renewable energy Technology (Hochschule Nordhausen)
2. Nordhausen University of Applied Sciences

Energy System Uncertainty Catalog

A structured catalog of uncertainties for energy-system modelling, covering parametric, structural, and temporal uncertainties across renewable energy, heat, bioenergy, Power-to-X/hydrogen, storage, imports, grid infrastructure, and demand sectors.

The catalog is designed to support uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, scenario development, and model robustness assessment in integrated energy-system models.

Overview

Energy-system models are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty, including uncertain technology costs and potentials, modelling assumptions, system constraints, demand evolution, and weather-dependent time series. However, these uncertainties are often treated inconsistently across studies.

This repository provides a structured and traceable catalog of relevant uncertainty parameters that can be used to systematically identify and characterize uncertainty in energy-system models.

The catalog distinguishes between three main uncertainty classes:

Parametric uncertainty — uncertainty in numerical model inputs such as investment costs, technology efficiencies, capacities, potentials, and technical parameters.
Structural uncertainty — uncertainty arising from modelling choices, system representation, constraints, optimization assumptions, and technology inclusion/exclusion.
Temporal uncertainty — uncertainty associated with weather years, demand profiles, time series, and other time-dependent model inputs.

Catalog Structure

The main catalog is provided as an Excel workbook:

Uncertainty Catalog.xlsx

The workbook contains the following sheets:

`Main`

Provides an overview of the uncertainty classification and technology categories used throughout the catalog.

`Parametric`

Contains numerical model parameters and their associated uncertainty ranges.

Each parameter includes information such as:

Field	Description
ID	Unique uncertainty identifier
Parameter	Parameter name
Technology Category	Relevant technology or sector
Model Component	Specific model component
Sector	Electricity, heat, gas, etc.
Unit	Parameter unit
Baseline	Reference value
Lower Bound	Lower uncertainty boundary
Upper Bound	Upper uncertainty boundary
Uncertainty Type	Epistemic, aleatory, or mixed
Reference Plot	Location of supporting reference data
Source / Reference	Literature and data sources
Justification	Rationale for the selected uncertainty range
Description	Interpretation of the parameter
Parameter Name in Model	Corresponding model variable

`Structural`

Contains uncertainties associated with the formulation and structure of the energy-system model.

Examples include:

Temporal resolution
CO₂ constraints
Grid losses
Storage operating assumptions
Optimization approach
Penalty costs
Technology inclusion/exclusion
Alternative system configurations

`Temporal`

Contains uncertainties related to time-dependent inputs and scenarios, including:

Wind generation profiles
Rooftop PV profiles
Open-field PV profiles
Solar-thermal generation
Electricity demand
Heat demand
Gas demand

The catalog distinguishes between aleatory uncertainty, such as interannual weather variability, and mixed uncertainty, where both variability and modelling assumptions contribute.

`Sources`

Contains the literature and other sources used to derive or justify the uncertainty ranges.

`Reference plot`

Contains the reference information used to derive selected numerical uncertainty ranges for technology parameters.

Files