Energy Transition Financing and Industrial Competitiveness in Nigeria: An ARDL-ECM Analysis of Renewable Energy Investment, Manufacturing Output, and Carbon Intensity (1990–2025)

Nigeria's post-fuel subsidy removal policies have raised concerns about renewable energy financing's impact on manufacturing and production prices. This study evaluates the influence of renewable energy investment funding on Nigeria's actual manufacturing value added and industrial carbon intensity from 1990 to 2025. Annual secondary time-series data were obtained from the CBN Statistical Bulletin, World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), and International Energy Agency. The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing and the Error Correction Model to estimate long-term and short-term variable associations. Unit root tests and bounds testing proved the ARDL methodology's applicability and long-run equilibrium relationship. Renewable energy investment funding increases industrial value added over time, implying a crowding-in effect. In contrast, industrial carbon intensity hurts manufacturing performance. Error correction model confirms stable adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, and post-estimation diagnostic tests indicate statistically robust and stable estimated model. The study found that renewable energy investment in Nigeria can boost industrial growth and environmental sustainability. Thus, complementary industrial policies, energy infrastructure improvements, and renewable energy financing should be implemented to boost manufacturing competitiveness and energy transition.