From Digital Twin Readiness to Realized Operational Value in Egyptian Logistics Firms: A Three-Wave Synthetic Panel Validation

This study validates a longitudinal readiness-to-value model for digital twins using a reproducible synthetic panel of 320 logistics-firm cases. Baseline benefit expectancy, workforce skill, managerial support, investment certainty, and data governance explained 40.0% of digital-twin readiness. Readiness strongly predicted implementation at Wave 2 (β=0.58), implementation predicted visibility (β=0.52), visibility predicted decision quality (β=0.43), and decision quality predicted operational value at Wave 3 (β=0.43). The sequential standardized indirect effect from readiness through implementation, visibility, and decision quality to value was 0.056. The benchmark demonstrates that the proposed temporal model is estimable and recovers the expected pathway. It does not establish digital-twin performance in actual Egyptian firms.