Carbon-Charge Increases and Retail Gasoline Prices in Canada: Data, Code, and Reproducibility Archive

This record contains the data, code, documentation, and analytical outputs supporting the study “Carbon-Charge Increases and Retail Gasoline Prices in Canada.”

The study examines the short-run relationship between consumer-facing carbon-charge increases and monthly retail prices for regular self-service gasoline across Canadian jurisdictions. It combines publicly available gasoline-price data from Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0001-01 with a documented register of carbon-charge implementation dates, statutory charge changes, and applicable sales-tax treatment.

The empirical analysis uses stacked event-study methods to compare gasoline-price movements around carbon-charge increases across Canadian jurisdictions. The archive includes analyses addressing comparison-group eligibility, repeated policy changes, alternative pre-treatment reference periods, pandemic-period events, cohort heterogeneity, jurisdiction weighting, influence, and inference with a small number of jurisdiction clusters.

The archive contains:

• public gasoline-price data and cleaned analysis datasets;
• documented policy-event and tax-wedge registers;
• city-level and jurisdiction-level analytical datasets;
• R and Python replication code;
• model estimates and machine-readable results;
• cluster-robust and wild-cluster inference outputs;
• permutation falsification diagnostics;
• robustness, influence, and sensitivity analyses;
• publication-quality tables and figures;
• random seeds, software-version information, run logs, checksums, and reproducibility documentation.

The principal empirical results show a positive monthly association between carbon-charge increases and retail gasoline prices. Because pre-event equivalence is not established and estimates show sensitivity across some specifications and cohorts, the results should be interpreted as evidence of a short-run association consistent with substantial pass-through rather than as a definitive causal incidence estimate.

Retail gasoline-price data are derived from the publicly available Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0001-01. Policy dates, rates, and tax treatments are documented using official federal, provincial, and territorial legal and administrative sources.

Restricted NRCan, Kalibrate, and other proprietary weekly gasoline-price observations were not used in the reported estimates and are not included in this archive. Third-party public data remain subject to the terms and licences of their original providers.

Version: 2.1.0
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21712499