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Published July 27, 2026 | Version v4.23.0

Reproducibility snapshot v4.23.0 for "The anti-maladaptation filter hypothesis: cohort-scale empirical test that NAM-classification-filtered portfolio allocation delivers higher expected avoided-loss NPV than five naive baseline allocations for climate adaptation of 725,462 electricity substations across 39 OECD countries"

Authors/Creators

Description

  Frozen v4.23.0 reproducibility snapshot accompanying the P4 manuscript submitted
  to Energy Economics (Elsevier). Contains: main manuscript v3 (12,947 words) with
  §4 empirical results from the Phase P4-5 39-country × 725,462-substation cohort
  solve (2026-07-26T16:28:03Z); Supplementary Materials §S1 per-country cost matrix
  + §S3 LP-vs-integer 0/1 + CVaR extended + shared-model τ² caveat + Cochran's Q
  refresh note + uniform-CV limitation + §S8 pooled DerSimonian-Laird per-country
  weight tables; five main-text SVG figures (Wong 2011 accessibility palette);
  full cohort JSON outputs from the 5,265 LP solves; one-command reproducibility
  scripts (cohort_solve.py + cohort_extended.py) with orchestrator runbook; cover
  letter + author declaration for the Energy Economics submission; audit response
  memo documenting cumulative 25-finding Beta remediation closure + Part 3 R19.1
  CLOSURE ADDENDUM.

  Empirical headline: 5-of-5 baselines strictly dominated at reference cell
  (SSP2-4.5 × 2050 × 15% budget) with cohort-mean reference-cell dominance
  margins +145.08% (population-weighted), +152.65% (GDP-weighted), +97.50%
  (substation-count-weighted), +55.14% (capacity-MW-weighted), and +2.04%
  (hazard-weighted). Multi-correction on 135-cell test family: Bonferroni
  117/135 (86.7%); Holm 126/135 (93.3%); BH-FDR 126/135 (93.3%). DerSimonian-
  Laird random-effects pooled effects strictly positive at 95% CI on all 5
  baselines. CVaR-α at α ∈ {0.95, 0.99} preserves dominance direction. LP-vs-
  integer 0/1 gap ≤ 0.5% of theoretical ceiling in 38 of 39 countries.

  Companion papers in the SSI Index publication slate:
  - P1 (Bérard 2026, Climate Risk Management, under review) — NAM operationalisation
    as first-stage screening classifier at cohort scale
  - P2 (Bérard 2026a, Environmental Research: Energy, DOI 10.1088/2753-3751/ae87a5,
    published August 2026) — atmospheric-corrosion damage-function library
  - P3 (Bérard 2026b, Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience,
    DOI 10.1186/s43065-026-00193-z, published July 2026) — Markov degradation prior

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Additional details

Related works

Is documented by
Dataset: 10.5281/zenodo.[TBD_P1] (DOI)
Is published in
Publication: 10.1088/2753-3751/ae87a5 (DOI)
Publication: 10.1186/s43065-026-00193-z (DOI)

Dates

Issued
2026-07-12
Convention #56 disclosures preserved in this snapshot: - Mixed cohort snapshot (6 of 9 Wave 4 majors post-strip; 3 of 9 pre-strip pending SSI Index Task #520 closure) - Uniform 30% CV proxy for CVaR (heterogeneous CV queued for revision) - Greenland +0.97% integer-vs-LP exceedance (N=43 sample-size effect) - Three-country bootstrap CI exceptions (Denmark/Greenland/Slovenia) - Cochran's Q formula correction between v2 → v3 (pooled effect + CI + I² unchanged; Q refresh queued for revision cycle)

References

  • - Fant, C., Boehlert, B., Strzepek, K., et al. (2020). Climate change impacts on U.S. transmission and distribution infrastructure. Energy, 195, 116899. - Ciscar, J.-C. et al. (2024). PESETA V 2024 update. JRC. - Byers, E. et al. (2018). Global exposure to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots. Environmental Research Letters 13(5), 055012. - Reckien, D. et al. (2023). Navigating adaptation-maladaptation using six criteria. Nature Climate Change 13, 907-918. - Zscheischler, J. et al. (2018). Future climate risk from compound events. Nature Climate Change 8(6), 469-477. - DerSimonian, R. & Laird, N. (1986). Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials 7(3), 177-188. - Rockafellar, R. T. & Uryasev, S. (2000). Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Journal of Risk 2(3), 21-41. - Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate. JRSS-B 57(1), 289-300.