Dataset for "Demand Observability of Critical Minerals under Statistical Discontinuity: Evidence from Japan's Special Steel Industry"

This dataset supports the manuscript “Demand Observability of Critical Minerals under Statistical Discontinuity: Evidence from Japan’s Special Steel Industry.”

The study examines whether continuously available industrial production statistics can serve as monitoring-oriented proxy indicators for use-specific critical-mineral demand after the corresponding official demand statistics are no longer continuously available. The empirical case covers special-steel-use demand in Japan for six mineral or statistical categories: antimony (Sb), nickel (Ni), Ni alloy, cobalt (Co), tungsten (W), and molybdenum (Mo). “Ni alloy” is retained as a legacy statistical category from the original Japanese statistics and should not be interpreted as an independent policy-defined critical mineral.

The dataset contains processed annual mineral-demand series and hot-rolled special steel production series for eight steel-category groups: MCS, LAS, SUP, SUJ, SUS, SUM, SWP, and HTS. The source series cover FY1987–FY2019. The principal analysis links mineral demand in fiscal year t to steel-category production in fiscal year t−2, resulting in 31 paired annual observations for demand FY1989–FY2019 and production FY1987–FY2017.

The workbook includes:

- processed annual mineral-demand data;
- processed annual hot-rolled special steel production data;
- the main two-year-lag-aligned analysis dataset;
- Lag 0–3 screening results for all 48 mineral–steel-category relationships;
- ordinary least squares t-values, Newey–West HAC t-values, adjusted R-squared values, Durbin–Watson statistics, and Tier classifications;
- full Lag-2 screening results;
- expanding-window rolling-origin evaluations for 17 candidate proxy models over 11 target years, FY2009–FY2019;
- annual forecast errors and model-level MAPE, MASE, and RMSPE results;
- centered-linear-trend sensitivity analyses; and
- Benjamini–Hochberg multiple-testing sensitivity analyses.

The Tier classification is used as an exploratory screening procedure rather than as a confirmatory hypothesis-testing hierarchy. Candidate relationships identified using the full-period data are evaluated retrospectively through an expanding-window rolling-origin procedure. The out-of-sample evaluation is therefore conditional on prior full-period screening and should not be interpreted as a fully independent pseudo-real-time model-selection exercise. The estimated relationships are intended as statistical monitoring signals and should not be interpreted as causal effects or direct physical mineral-input coefficients.

Version 3.0 updates Version 2.1 in the same Zenodo version series. The previous published version is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20483867.

Changes from Version 2.1 to Version 3.0
---------------------------------------

Version 3.0 adds six workbook sheets supporting the supplementary robustness and sensitivity analyses:

1. full centered-linear-trend sensitivity results for all 48 mineral–steel-category relationships;
2. a source table for the 22 relationships classified as Tier 1–3 in the baseline Lag-2 screening;
3. methodological and interpretive notes for the linear-trend sensitivity analysis;
4. complete Benjamini–Hochberg results for all 48 Lag-2 coefficient tests;
5. a source table for the seven principal models reported in the supplementary material; and
6. methodological and interpretive notes for the multiple-testing analysis.

Version 3.0 also adds:

- Newey–West HAC p-values and HAC 95% confidence intervals for the linear-trend sensitivity analysis;
- full-precision numerical outputs supporting Supplementary Tables S5 and S6;
- explicit descriptions of the test family, degrees of freedom, finite-sample correction, and confidence-interval calculations;
- clearer interpretation boundaries for the sensitivity analyses; and
- an updated workbook map and recommended reading order.

The following core data and analytical results are unchanged from Version 2.1:

- the processed mineral-demand series;
- the processed special-steel production series;
- the main two-year-lag-aligned dataset;
- the Lag 0–3 screening results;
- the baseline Lag-2 Tier classifications;
- the annual expanding-window forecasts; and
- the model-level MAPE, MASE, RMSPE, and performance classifications.

Accordingly, Version 3.0 does not revise the underlying demand or production data or the principal screening and out-of-sample results. The update strengthens transparency, auditability, and documentation of the supplementary specification and multiple-testing sensitivity analyses.

Files included
--------------

1. analysis_dataset_and_results_v3.0.xlsx
2. README_v3.0.txt
3. Data_sources_and_processing_notes_v3.0.txt

The workbook contains processed annual series and analysis outputs used in the manuscript. It does not redistribute copies of the original public statistical source files. Users should consult and cite the original source institutions for authoritative statistical definitions, revisions, and terms of use.

Reuse and interpretation
------------------------

The dataset is intended to support reproducibility, methodological review, and further research on demand observability, proxy-based monitoring, statistical discontinuity, and critical-mineral governance. Users should cite both this dataset and the related manuscript. Use and redistribution are governed by the license specified for this Zenodo record.