Integrated assessment of appliance life-cycle GHG emissions: a modeling framework applied to washing machines in Europe

Electrical appliances are essential to modern life, and their use is increasing with electrification and digitalization, driving substantial energy and material demand, emissions, and waste. Current assessments often lack life-cycle coverage and sufficient granularity to fully capture environmental impacts and evaluate mitigation options. Here we develop GLANCE–GAINS, a bottom-up integrated modeling framework combining a dynamic material flow analysis model with a waste and pollution model and prospective life-cycle inventory data, linked with the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model. Our objective is to provide a flexible framework for assessing appliance life cycles and environmental footprints across regions, device types, and future socioeconomic and climate pathways, and for evaluating mitigation strategies related to efficiency, circularity, and power-sector decarbonization. As a case study, we apply GLANCE–GAINS to washing machines in Europe through 2050 to assess future stocks, energy use, material flows, and life-cycle GHG emissions under alternative mitigation scenarios. A middle-of-the-road socioeconomic trajectory shows continued growth in stock, energy demand, material use, and emissions to 2050. Circularity strategies can cut embodied emissions by ~70% and total life-cycle emissions by ~30%, with demand-side measures, such as shared use, delivering the strongest individual impact. Combining circularity, efficiency, and a 1.5°C-aligned power transition reduces emissions by ~90%, leaving embodied emissions as the primary residual. In renewable-rich regions such as Northern Europe, embodied emissions already dominate, making circularity central to deep mitigation.