Published July 21, 2026
| Version v2
Dataset
Open
Global Mean Sea Level Projection Database 2026 Update
Description
This database is a 2026 update to the original global mean sea level (GMSL) projection database published by Garner et al., 2018. The main database (Garner_etal__Global_SLR_Database_2026.xlsx), contains the following fields:
- Year the study was published
- Lead author/organization for the study
- Publication/Institution Country of Origin
- Projection Methodology
- Emission Scenario
- Emission Scenario type (Low, Mid, High, or Combined)
- Base year for projections
- End year for projections
- Lower estimate of GMSL
- Definition of lower estimate of GMSL
- Central estimate of GMSL
- Definition of central estimate of GMSL
- Upper estimate of GMSL
- Definition of upper estimate of GMSL
- Link to the publication
The milestone database (TableS2_Global_SLR_Milestones_Data) contains the following fields:
- Year the study was published
- Lead author/organization for the study
- Projection Methodology
- Emission Scenario type (Low, Mid, or High)
- Base year for projection
- End year for projection
- 5th percentile of projected GMSL change
- 17th percentile of projected GMSL change
- 50th percentile of projected GMSL change
- 83rd percentile of projected GMSL change
- 95th percentile of projected GMSL change
- Era that the projection falls into on the IPCC timeline
- Source for data values (figure/table from which values were obtained)
Notes
The authors invite additional suggestions of studies producing global mean sea level projections that should be included in future iterations of the database. Please use the Google form found at the link below to provide suggestions of studies to be added to the database:
Files
Additional details
Funding
- U.S. National Science Foundation
- CAREER: Synthesizing Structural Uncertainty of Sea-level Rise Projections to Improve Application in Decision Making OCE2234866
Software
- Repository URL
- https://github.com/AJ-Garner/Garner_etal_2026_GMSL_Database_Code
- Programming language
- R
- Development Status
- Unsupported