Biomass for energy and materials in the EU: Guidance for allocation in a biomass constrained world

As biomass demand is projected to rise to replace fossil resources, sustainable biomass supply is foreseen to face increasing constraints, while a comprehensive overview of future biomass demand and supply in the EU is lacking. Given biomass potential in contributing to Europe’s climate neutrality by 2050, Agora sought to optimise the production and use of biomass for energy and materials in the EU over time. Agora developed scenarios for biomass demand and supply in a climate neutral EU, whilst promoting competitiveness and strategic autonomy. 

In this context, Agora Energiewende commissioned Ifeu to assess the viability and practicality of a merit-order for biomass utilisation and provide higher granularity of some biomass flows to refine Agora’s approach on biomass for energy and materials. The present study is thus based on Agora’s main studies Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU. The land use sectors as part of a sustainable food system and bioeconomy (Agora Agriculture, 2024) and Breaking free from fossil gas - A new path to a climate-neutral Europe (Agora Energiewende, 2023). ifeu developed and applied a merit-order approach to biomass utilisation, enabling a more granular and systematic allocation of biomass across sectors in Europe. Ifeu’s study refines assumptions for key applications—including biomethane, biofuels and fine chemicals—and considers Agora’s approach against alternative scenarios. 

In close collaboration with Agora, and together with SYKE, ifeu’s analysis improves the resolution of biomass supply and demand and provides evidence-based guidance on optimal biomass allocation across sectors over time.