Stock Predictions for Four Islamic Banks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Based on ARIMA Analysis

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) index serves as the main indicator for the Indonesian stock market, holding strategic importance for investors and companies. Four Islamic banks are listed: PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. (BRIS), PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk. (BTPS), PT Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk. (PNBS), and PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk. (BANK). This study, using an ARIMA approach with R Programming on daily IDX data until December 2023, examines their trends amidst an uncertain economic outlook in 2024-2025. The findings indicate a bearish trend for these banks. Specifically, BRIS shows a long-term bullish trend but weak signals are present, with price predictions of a maximum of 3,406 and minimum of 1,808. BTPS remains bearish with short bullish signals, predicting a maximum of 2,007 and minimum of 1,772. PNBS and BANK both trend sideways towards bearish, with PNBS predicting a maximum of 61.83 and minimum of 56.03, while BANK’s maximum is 1,573 and minimum is 1,327.

ARIMA; Data Mining; Indonesia Stock Exchange; Machine Learning; R Programming.