PaleoBAYES: a Bayesian tool for paleoearthquake magnitude estimation with application to PaleoEcA (central Apennines)

This repository contains the data and code that support the findings presented in “Bayesian Estimation of Paleoearthquake Magnitudes in the Central Apennines” by Di Naccio, D., Zaccagnino, D., and Carafa, M.M.C. (Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 2026).

We provide the PaleoBAYES MATLAB tool and the PaleoEcA database, forming a complete, reproducible framework for deriving paleoearthquake magnitudes from geological field data and carefully treating measurement uncertainties and preservation bias.

The repository includes the following files:

1) PaleoBAYES_DiNaccioetal_2026.m – The MATLAB script that implements the Bayesian method, incorporating empirical scaling relationships with their full uncertainty and time-dependent preservation probabilities.

2) PaleoBAYES_DiNaccioetal_2026.pdf – The user manual with step-by-step guidelines for running the script and interpreting the outputs.

3) PaleoEcA_DiNaccioetal_2026.xlsx – The PaleoEcA database containing rupture length, throw, and age data for 44 paleoevents.

4) PaleoEcA_DiNaccioetal_2026.pdf – The companion document describing the database structure, content, and the criteria used for compiling the paleoseismological data.

Funding:

The study has been partially funded by the call PRIN2022PNRR, code P2022P37SN-project “Relation Between 3D Thermo-Rheological Model and Seismic Hazard for the Risk Mitigation in the Urban Areas of Southern Italy (TRHAM)”, Decree of Admission to funding-Director Decree Number 1388 of 01/09/2023, ERC sector PE10 “Earth System Science, Funded By The European Union-Next Generation EU” and by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) “Progetto Centro Italia DL50 – OR-PER (PEACE)”.

Corresponding author:

Davide Zaccagnino – zaccagnino@sustech.edu.cn; davide.zaccagnino@ingv.it