Equity, Elasticity, and Mode Shift: Zone-Level Effects of NYC's Congestion Relief Zone on High-Volume For-Hire Vehicle Demand

This paper examines the first six months of New York City's Congestion Relief Zone (CRZ), focusing on the effects of congestion pricing on ride-hailing demand, equity, and mode substitution. Using publicly available data from the NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission, Metropolitan Transportation Authority, U.S. Census Bureau, and NOAA, the study constructs a zone-level panel of ride-hail, taxi, subway, and demographic indicators.

Results indicate that ride-hail demand within the tolled zone fell relative to a counterfactual baseline, with impacts varying substantially across neighborhoods. Lower-income and transit-poor areas experienced different adjustment patterns, while mode substitution to subways and yellow taxis accounted for a significant share of lost ride-hail trips. The paper also estimates demand elasticity and explores revenue implications under alternative congestion pricing scenarios.

The findings highlight the importance of transit accessibility in shaping the distributional effects of congestion pricing and contribute to ongoing debates about urban mobility, transportation equity, and congestion management policy.