Published June 22, 2026 | Version 1

The God Hypothesis. A Probabilistic Evaluation of a Cumulative Case.

Authors/Creators

  • 1. The Wellbeing Confederation

Description

This work treats the existence of God as a hypothesis and evaluates it through a Bayesian cumulative case, in the tradition of ramified natural theology. It gathers seven independent lines of evidence —the intertextual coherence of Scripture, medically audited cures, near-death experiences, meaningful coincidences, the epidemiological effects of religious practice, cosmological fine-tuning and biological information, and the Otiogenic inference of the Designer— and measures how far each one shifts the probability of the hypothesis, with the best alternative explanation declared at every step. The synthesis shows that, for any reasonable prior, the posterior probability shifts upward, with no sensible combination of weights producing a net downward movement. On that epistemic basis, a layer of decision theory under uncertainty concludes that acting as if the Designer exists is the optimal option even under the most adverse assumption, the one in which its documented benefits were entirely placebo. The work does not claim demonstration; it claims that the logical, the probable, and the beneficial converge in the same direction.

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References
Preprint: 10.5281/zenodo.20507060 (DOI)