Published June 22, 2026 | Version v1
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Drivers and pathways for Ethiopia's 2050 decarbonization: An integrated LMDI LEAP modeling framework

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Department of Physics, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

Description

Ethiopia has sustained rapid economic growth (6–10% annually) but remains heavily dependent on traditional biomass (88% of final energy), with electrification at only 55% as of 2022. Ambitious climate targets under NDC 3.0 (70.3% reduction below BAU by 2035) and the Long Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (net zero by 2050) demand rigorous decarbonization planning. This study develops an integrated LMDI LEAP framework to assess Ethiopia’s decarbonization pathways to 2050, bridging historical driver decomposition with dynamic scenario simulation. Methods: Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition quantifies drivers of energy related CO₂ emissions (2005–2020). The Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) models four scenarios (BAU, Current Policies, Announced Policies Scenario – APS, and Net Zero Emissions – NZE) from 2022 to 2050. LMDI reveals that economic activity (+58%) and population (+38%) drove emission increases, while energy intensity improvements (−45%) partially offset growth – a weak decoupling status (elasticity 0.54). Under BAU, emissions reach 214 MtCO₂e by 2060. APS reduces emissions to 65 MtCO₂e in 2035 (42% below BAU), approaching NDC 3.0 unconditional targets. NZE achieves energy sector emissions of 2.9 MtCO₂e by 2050 (>90% reduction) through aggressive efficiency (improved cookstoves reduce household demand by 55–57%), full renewable electrification, and end use switching. Ethiopia can meet NDC 3.0 targets with moderate policy effort, but net zero requires transformative interventions, particularly in residential cooking and transport, backed by ~US$157 billion in climate finance. Prioritize energy intensity measures, scale solar/wind/geothermal, electrify end uses, and mobilize international support.       

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References

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