RED-PUMP-2026-v1: A public benchmark of 860,213 pump.fun token launches with survival outcomes (May–June 2026 regime)

RED-PUMP-2026-v1 is a public benchmark dataset of 860,213 Solana pump.fun token launches observed continuously between 2026-05-08 and 2026-06-10 (34 days). Of these, 832,941 unique mints reached a terminal outcome within a 24-hour observation window: 1,651 graduated to PumpSwap and 831,290 timed out. The pooled graduation rate is 0.198% (Wilson 95% CI [0.189%, 0.208%]); the steady-state rate excluding a four-day tracker warm-up and the partial last day is 0.207% (Wilson 95% CI [0.198%, 0.218%]).

Each launch record contains the Solana mint address, observer detection timestamp, on-chain creation timestamp, initial market capitalisation in SOL, three Boolean indicators for advertised social channels (Twitter/X, website, Telegram), and the description-character length. Each terminal-outcome record contains the outcome class, minutes-to-outcome, and the detection lag.

The dataset is released alongside a companion preprint titled "Pump.fun Graduation Regime Windows: Survival Analysis of 832,941 Token Launches and the Social-Presence Effect" (SSRN forthcoming). The companion paper reports Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards results stratified by social-channel presence and initial market-capitalisation quartile. Key findings include an 8.94x graduation-rate lift for launches advertising a Telegram channel and a multivariate Cox concordance of 0.858.

The schema is frozen as red-pump-1.0; future monthly versions (v2, v3, etc.) will preserve all v1 fields. Reproducible analysis code (Python 3.12, lifelines 0.30.3) is included in the deposit.

v1.1 changelog (2026-06-11): corrected the placeholder DOI in README.md citation block (now references concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20633486 and v1.0 DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20633487); SHA256SUMS regenerated; all 8 other files identical to v1.0 by SHA256.