EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF THE SEISMIC ENERGY RELEASE METHOD SERRA / MEL
Authors/Creators
- 1. THEK Research Institute / Universidad de Guayaquil
Description
EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF THE SEISMIC ENERGY RELEASE RISK ASSESSMENT (SERRA/MEL)
THEK Research Institute — Advanced Scientific, Engineering & Technological Think Tank
Description
This document presents the empirical validation of the Seismic Energy Release Risk Assessment (SERRA/MEL), developed by Marcelo Moncayo Theurer between 1999 and 2000. The central purpose of SERRA is to transfer seismic hazard analysis into the physical energy domain, as the foundation for safer, more precise, and permanently updatable seismic-resistant structural designs. The method uses world seismic databases to produce energy release curves and seismic risk maps, translated through the following chain: Seismic catalog (USGS) → Energy release curves → Equivalent magnitude (MEM) → Attenuation laws → Design acceleration → Seismic-resistant design.
As a prospective byproduct, SERRA produces prospective assertions that identify stages of higher seismic activity, regional cyclic behavior, and current seismic hazard at each identified SIGSA (Generalized Seismically Active System).
SIGSA Prospective Assertions — ESPOL 2005
| SIGSA | Expected Magnitude | Zone | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manabí-Esmeraldas | Mw 7.7–8.2 | Northern coast — Bahía de Caráquez zone | ✓ CORROBORATED — Pedernales Mw 7.8, April 16, 2016 |
| Chongón-Colonche | Mw 6.5–7.0 | Santa Elena Peninsula — 15-75 km from Guayaquil | ✓ CORROBORATED — Events 6.0–6.2, 2000–2011 |
| Jambelí | Mw 7.5–7.7 | Eastern Amazonian zone of Ecuador | ✓ CONCORDANT — Events 6.1, 6.8, 7.1 (2005–2010) |
| Guayaquil (near city) | ~Mw 6.0 | Within 20 km of Guayaquil city | ✓ CONCORDANT — USGS 5.5 (2017) near Naranjal |
| Guayaquil (south) | Mw 7.2–7.5 | Gulf of Guayaquil / Tumbes zone | ⏳ ACTIVE/PENDING — Energy curve persistent |
| Subduction | Mw 8.3+ | Pacific subductive zone | ⏳ ACTIVE/PENDING — Potential Ms 8.9 (cf. 1906) |
Documentary Authenticity
File metadata confirms all original documents were created between 2001 and 2006, prior to all seismic events they prospectively identify. ESPOL Final Document: created 02/08/2005 (118 pages, 222 min editing time). Mapa de Potencialidad figure: created 07/21/2005, Author: moncayo. Executive Summary: created 07/14/2006. These metadata constitute independent forensic evidence of chronological priority.
Key Advantages of SERRA
- No external empirical dependencies — data come exclusively from the studied region.
- Permanently updatable with each new seismic catalog entry.
- Only method that correlates seismic hazard results with real subsequent seismic activity.
- Complete design chain: released energy → equivalent magnitude → design acceleration → seismic force.
- Prospective assertion horizon demonstrated: 11 to 25 years before observed events.
Marcelo Moncayo Theurer, MSc
CEO & Director of Research — THEK Research Institute
Full Professor — Universidad de Guayaquil, Ecuador
ORCID: 0000-0002-8456-1571 | solugran@gmail.com
CEDIA/SENECYT: https://redi.cedia.edu.ec/document/345876 | DOI: 10.23878/alternativas.v17i3.231
Files
SERRA_Empirical_Validation_EN_FINAL.pdf
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Additional details
Identifiers
Related works
- Is derived from
- Journal article: 10.23878/alternativas.v17i3.231 (DOI)
- Report: 10.5281/zenodo.20576713 (DOI)
- Is supplement to
- Report: https://redi.cedia.edu.ec/document/345876 (URL)
- References
- Dataset: https://earthquake.usgs.gov (URL)
Dates
- Created
-
2000-01-22Original SERRA/MEL method developed at University of Tokyo, 1999-2000
- Available
-
2005-02-0808ESPOL 2005 original document created (verified by file metadata)
- Submitted
-
2015-11-202015-11-20