Seismic Energy Release Risk Assessment (SERRA) — A Physical Energy-Based Framework for Seismic Behavior Characterization, Reactivation Stage Identification, and Seismic Risk Mapping

THEK Research Institute — Advanced Scientific, Engineering & Technological Think Tank

Marcelo Moncayo Theurer, MSc  |  CEO & Director of Research  |  Full Professor, Universidad de Guayaquil

Three Analytical Tools

1. Seismic energy release curves (energy vs. time at lustro and decadal resolution) — identify reactivation stages, energy levels, recurrence patterns, and enable seismic risk map construction at national, regional, and canton scales.
2. Hypocentral depth curves (superficial / intermediate / deep earthquakes vs. time) — demonstrate that hypocenters migrate toward the surface during reactivation and deepen during quiescence. High energy + superficial hypocenters = most structurally destructive condition.
3. GIS-based focused energy maps (ArcMap / Global Mapper) — classify seismogenic sources by Maximum Expected Magnitude (MEM) and peak ground acceleration (PGA).

Empirical Validations

• 2001: Predicted onset of a new Ecuadorian seismic reactivation from year 2000 — validated by tens-fold post-2000 energy increase. Premio al Mérito Científico, Honorable Congreso Nacional del Ecuador.
• 2003–2005: ESPOL Proyecto Semilla map identified Manabi-Esmeraldas as Very High threat (Mw 7.7–8.0) — validated by the April 16, 2016 Pedernales earthquake (Mw 7.8).
• October 2015: International Congress (UCSG) reiterated the threat five months before the event. Published in Revista Alternativas (2016). DOI: 10.23878/alternativas.v17i3.231

Key Findings — Multi-Country Application

• Applied to Ecuador, Mexico, Chile, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Japan, Australia, USA, Europe, and at continental scale.
• North-South distinction: Seismicity in Peru and Chile is governed by subduction proximity; in Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela by discrete seismogenic spots — requiring fundamentally different hazard approaches.
• First energy-based seismic risk map for Latin America (Pinargote Peralta & Vera Tumbaco, 2019, Universidad de Guayaquil, under direction of Moncayo Theurer).
• Polynomial energy behavior equations derived for six countries — enabling quantitative projection of future seismic behavior.
• 30-canton Ecuador study (2022): All 30 cantons in active reactivation. Guayaquil: 27-year uninterrupted reactivation at 6.76× historical average — longest in 122 years of instrumental records.
• Caribbean plate vestige proposal: Anomalous material between the Nazca and South American plates expressed through the Guayaquil-Caracas fault system explains the seismogenic spot behavior of the northern Andean margin.

Files included: English white paper (primary) | Spanish white paper — Método de Energía Liberada | Newspaper clipping, Diario El Universo, October 2001 (priority date evidence)

Priority date of public disclosure: October 2001 — Diario El Universo, Guayaquil, Ecuador.