Why Self-Driving Cars Would Struggle in African Cities: What Informal Traffic Systems Reveal About the Limits of Autonomous Vehicles

5:15 PM at a busy urban junction in a rapidly growing African city. Rush hour has begun. A
Level-4 autonomous vehicle (AV), designed to operate with minimal human intervention under
defined conditions, approaches a congested intersection. The traffic lights are not functioning.
Vehicles drift into improvised lanes as drivers negotiate limited road space. A trotro slows abruptly
to load passengers close to the junction. Pedestrians cross between moving vehicles rather than
waiting at designated points. An okada slips through a narrow gap beside the vehicle. For a human
driver familiar with this traffic, these scenes are ordinary. They reflect an informal but deeply
understood system of movement shaped by experience, negotiation, and adaptation. But how would
a self-driving vehicle respond in such an environment? Can AV systems designed for structured
transport settings function safely within the informal traffic environments common across many
African cities?