DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN EGYPT: FERTILITY DECLINE AND MORTALITY TRENDS USING MULTILEVEL STATISTICAL MODELS

This study evaluated the Egyptian population's demographic transition in terms of mortality and fertility patterns and how socioeconomic factors influence these patterns. Analysing nationally representative survey data from 2005, 2008, and 2015, the study employs mixed-effects logistic regression models to investigate the effect of women's age, education, wealth, healthcare access, and autonomy on child mortality and fertility desires. Evidence shows a consistent reduction in infant mortality and fertility over time, indicating Egypt's transition through the demographic transition. However, socioeconomic factors have seemingly varied effects with intricate patterns: higher education and wealth usually decrease infant mortality but reversing relationships with under-five mortality indicate contextual vulnerabilities. The determinant role of women's autonomy, both individually and as an interaction with other variables, illuminates the value of empowerment in influencing demographic outcomes. Temporal analysis emphasises gains but also ongoing inequalities, especially between rural and poor groups. The research advances knowledge of Egypt's demographic transition by combining socioeconomic and gender factors, providing evidence for health, education, and empowerment policies targeting specific groups. Policy suggestions focus on reinforcing healthcare systems, increasing women's opportunities, and combating inequalities to maintain demographic advances and promote equitable population outcomes.