The Sino-Russian relationship and its implications across the Eurasian and Indo-Pacific strategic theaters

Viewing Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific region as distinct strategic theaters is no longer viable. Russia and China are increasingly aligning across both regions, challenging the Western-led liberal international order and its associated security architecture. We begin by examining China’s relations in Central Asia as a case study of Eurasian geopolitical transformation and its implications for Sino-Russian relations. China has become increasingly important in the region’s economic and security spheres. Although Beijing and Moscow are not overtly competing in Central Asia, their relationship is not without friction. Nevertheless, tensions have gradually eased amid expanding Sino-Russian interactions and Russia’s growing reliance on China following its international isolation and sanctions in 2022. We further argue that China plays a significant role in shaping Russia’s engagement with the Asia-Pacific, influencing both its global positioning and national identity. While Russia’s regional policies are not solely shaped by its ties with Beijing, its increasing dependence on China and, more recently, North Korea, has become more pronounced since 2022. We then compare how states across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific navigate intensifying great power rivalry, offering key insights into the future evolution of the international order and security architectures. Despite the impact of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war, both Central Asian and Southeast Asian countries continue to pursue diversified external relations. Russia and China remain central to the multivector policies of Central Asian states, while China and the US exert significant influence over the strategic choices of Asia-Pacific countries, even during the early stages of Trump’s second administration.