Results of Geospatial Monitoring of Agricultural Resources at the Onset of the Summer Growing Season of 2026
Authors/Creators
- 1. Institute of Аgroecology and Environmental Management NAAN
- 2. Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Management
Description
This analytical report presents the results of geospatial monitoring of Ukraine's agricultural resources at the onset of the summer growing season of 2026. The study is based on open-access satellite data from GADAS USDA and NOAA NESDIS STAR. Three thematic dimensions are examined: temperature conditions, soil moisture supply, and vegetation state.
Temperature analysis reveals a significant increase in land surface temperature during the 2022–2025 growing seasons compared to the 1982–1991 baseline: +2.2 °C in the Polissia zone, +2.8 °C in the Forest-Steppe, and +3.4 °C in the Steppe, with the national average rising from 18.6 to 21.4 °C. Precipitation trends show a gradual decline, particularly in Polissia and the Forest-Steppe, with a shift toward greater cold-season and reduced warm-season rainfall.
According to SMAP satellite data for late May 2026, soil moisture reserves in the one-metre soil layer are adequate across most of Ukraine, with the exception of western regions where limited moisture was recorded. The spatial analysis also identifies drought-like conditions in adjacent Western European countries.
Drought intensity assessed using the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) indicates increasing risk in the Forest-Steppe and Polissia zones, with 20–30% of territory in Cherkasy and Poltava oblasts experiencing moderate drought (VHI < 35) in 2026.
Vegetation condition, evaluated via NDVI, shows improvement in Steppe oblasts relative to 2024–2025, while a decline is observed in Forest-Steppe and Polissia regions, likely attributable to ice crust damage to winter crops and adverse weather conditions.
The report concludes that the relatively favourable moisture balance in 2026 presents an opportunity to optimise crop cultivation technologies, including fertilisation and crop protection, to maximise yields of both early and late crops.
Prepared by the Laboratory of Aerospace Remote Sensing of the Agrosphere, Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Management, NAAS.