Livestock and fertiliser dependency: a nitrogen accounting perspective for the EU

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s reliance on imported fertiliser has raised concern among policy makers about food security and the resilience and strategic autonomy of the EU’s food system. Increasing geo-political tensions further highlight the vulnerability of global fertiliser markets. Manure is suggested as a way to address dependency on mineral fertilisers. Whether this is plausible in practice can be explored through a limited accounting exercise focusing on flows of nitrogen (N) from fertiliser into animal production and from manure out of it.

Conceptual framework

Figure 1 illustrates the conceptual framework and the N flows considered. The analysis compares the inflow of N from mineral fertiliser used to produce feed and grassland for livestock with the outflow of N from manure to the rest of agriculture. A complete accounting of all N flows is not necessary. If this lower-bound estimate shows that livestock is a net consumer of N from mineral fertiliser, adding further inputs (e.g. N embedded in imported feed) only increases that imbalance.

Data and assumptions

Using datasets on crop production, N use, and fertiliser application for the EU27 (excluding Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg), combined with EU cereals balance sheets, I quantify N flows for the latest year with complete data (2017/18). While the data allow attributing mineral fertiliser use to cereals fed to animals, conservative assumptions are used for other crops. In the absence of crop-specific manure allocation data, N from manure is assumed to be applied to feed crops in line with mineral fertiliser use.

Results

The results of this accounting exercise are displayed in Table 1 and summarised in Figure 2. In 2017/18, animal production in the EU used an estimated 5.1 million tonnes of N from mineral fertiliser to produce feed crops and maintain grassland, while only about 2.5 million tonnes of N from manure were available for other agri-cultural production. Animal production therefore consumed roughly 2.6 million tonnes more N from mineral fertiliser than it returned to the rest of agriculture through manure. Most manure remains within animal production systems (7.3 million t). A substantial share is excreted on grazing land or reapplied to grassland and feed crops, with more being lost in housing and storage. As a result, only a relatively small portion of N from manure becomes available for non-feed crop production.

Implications

Improving manure management and its distribution can help lower fertiliser demand, as reflected in recent EU rules facilitating the use of processed manure products. However, such measures address inefficiencies, not the structural imbalance of N flows. Even under optimistic assumptions, livestock production would still require substantial N inputs from mineral fertiliser and imported feed. While improved manure utilisation can partially offset mineral fertiliser use, animal production in the EU remains a net consumer of N. As a result, manure cannot provide a scalable solution to the EU’s dependency on mineral fertiliser – even disregarding the difficul-ties of balancing not only N, but also phosphorus and potassium, through manure application.