CYBERSECURITY IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN THE CONTEXT OF HILP RISKS

This conference paper addresses the limitations of traditional risk management paradigms in the cybersecurity of the energy sector when facing High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) and zero-precedent risks. The author establishes an epistemological distinction between measurable risks and radical (Knightian) uncertainty, proposing a methodological split in cybersecurity budgeting: a "Risk Budget" (justified via an option-based interpretation of the Black-Scholes formula) and an "Uncertainty Budget" aimed at developing functional transmorphance and adaptive potential. 

The study analyzes structural vulnerabilities caused by the concentration of dependencies (cloud infrastructures, IAM, global vendors) and AI-accelerated cyberattacks that outpace human response times. As an architectural countermeasure, the concept of Minimum Viable Digital Operability (MVDO) is introduced - a diverse, actively exploited digital circuit based on open-source technologies - complemented by an autonomous, locally deployed analytical circuit powered by fine-tuned local AI models to maintain system understanding and survivability under radical uncertainty.