CONUS-HCS: a continental harvest decision-surface product (240 m annual harvest probability, intensity, and silvicultural type, 2024)

Continental harvest decision surfaces for the 48 conterminous United States at 240 m (EPSG:5070), produced by the Continental U.S. Harvest Classification System (CONUS-HCS), a four-stage Bayesian hierarchical harvest decision module fit on the full USDA FIA remeasured plot-pair record (452,887 pairs) and projected via TreeMap 2022 tile substitution. Layers (Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs, anchor year 2024):

• conus_p_partial_annual — annual partial-harvest probability (model-native complementary log-log hazard); continental mean 0.0238/yr.
• conus_p_stand_replacement_annual and _perregion — annual stand-replacement (forest-to-non-forest) probability under continental and per-region King-Zeng prevalence; mean 0.0063/yr (continental).
• conus_intensity_partial, conus_intensity_clearcut — fraction of basal area removed, conditional on harvest (means 0.395 and 0.914).
• conus_hcs_class_partial, conus_hcs_class_clearcut (+ _pmax confidence) — modal silvicultural treatment class from the M4 multinomial classifier.

Interpretation note: the stand-replacement layer captures an FIA forest-condition transition over the remeasurement interval, not silvicultural clearcutting; it anti-correlates with Hansen Global Forest Change at the state scale (Spearman -0.53) and must not be benchmarked against TPO clearcut bands or satellite forest-loss products. Plot-level discrimination is modest (AUC ~0.59-0.61); the product is calibrated for area-aggregate annual projection (held-out ECE 0.0235), and residual spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.38) is documented. Designed for ingestion into forest projection systems (FVS, LANDIS-II, CBM-CFS3, the RPA framework) and the PERSEUS forest intelligence platform.

Companion product: the 30 m CONUS standing-timber-value rasters (doi:10.5281/zenodo.20515241).