THE FUTURE OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH: UNTIL THE 2030S GEOPOLITICAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND CULTURAL PERSPECTIVES

This article analyzes the near future of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which came under the full control of Azerbaijan in September 2023, focusing on demographic, economic, geopolitical, and cultural-historical changes up to the 2030s. The article is based on recent publications from the International Crisis Group, the European Parliament, the ICTJ (International Center for Transitional Justice), OC Media, EVN Report, and other leading research centers. Three main scenarios are considered: the signing of a peace treaty and stable integration; the continuation of the frozen conflict in a new form; and the resurgence of the risk of military conflict. The article demonstrates that while Azerbaijan's dominance in the region will strengthen in the 2030s, peace will remain fragile, and the issues surrounding the Armenian diaspora in Armenia and international law will remain unresolved.