AVALIAÇÃO DE MODELOS HÍBRIDOS DE ANÁLISE TÉCNICA E FUNDAMENTALISTA: UMA PERSPECTIVA TECNOLÓGICA NO MERCADO DE AÇÕES

This study investigates the performance of a hybrid investment model that combines technical and fundamental analysis in the Brazilian stock market. The objective is to assess whether this integration can outperform the traditional buy-and-hold strategy. A quantitative approach was employed using backtests conducted from 2000 to 2025. Companies were selected through fundamental screening criteria based on Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E ≤ 15), Return on Equity (ROE > 15%), Net Margin (> 15%), Current Ratio (≥ 1), and Price-to-Book Ratio (0.5 ≤ P/B ≤ 1.5). Thirteen companies met the selection criteria and were evaluated using a trend-following technical strategy based on the crossover of 9-period and 46-period simple moving averages. Simulations were performed on the TradingView platform with an initial capital of BRL 1,000,000. Results indicate that although the fundamental screening selected financially solid companies, the hybrid model did not outperform the buy-and-hold strategy, exhibiting higher volatility and drawdown levels. The findings suggest that combining technical and fundamental analysis requires careful calibration of technical parameters to achieve consistent results. The study highlights the potential of advanced computational approaches, including adaptive optimization and artificial intelligence, for improving hybrid investment models.

The project was developed within the QuantInovarum Research Group at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Brazil.

The study was presented at the VIII Week of Science and Technology of the School of Science and Technology (ECT/UFRN), Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Brazil. The extended abstract was accepted for publication in the conference proceedings.