Measuring the impact of Rural-to-Urban Migration on Food Security in Algeria During the Period (1970-2023) Using Threshold Models

Abstract:

This study aimed to analyse the impact of rural migration on food security in Algeria during the period (1970-2023), through the use of Threshold Models, where the results showed that the nature of the relationship between economic variables changes according to different levels of migration, and it was found that rural migration, expressed by the ratio of rural population to the total population, has a significant impact on the food production index, where high levels of migration lead to a decline in agricultural productive capacities, due to the loss of rural labour and erosion of agricultural lands near cities due to urban expansion, on the other hand, the impact of other economic variables (inflation, cultivated areas, import volumes) varies according to each threshold, reflecting the complex and intertwined nature of the impact of migration on food security

Keywords: Rural-urban migration, agricultural output, food security, threshold regression models.