Green Steel Premiums: Promise or Illusion?

Independent analysis of the green steel premium market as it actually is — not as its advocates hope it will become. Certified premium green steel amounts to under 0.25% of world output, confined almost entirely to Europe and a single buyer sector. Documents premium ranges of €100–350/tonne on certified flat steel; analyses willingness to pay across six end-use sectors; and explains why automotive is the only serious buyer at scale. Examines the definition problem, mass balance controversy, and systemic pattern of European green investment deferrals. Projects market growth to 30–45 Mt by 2030 and 150–230 Mt by 2040, contingent on CBAM, Scope 3 mandates, and green public procurement. Includes the MENA paradox and the US zero-premium lesson. Five specific policy recommendations.