CONUS-HCS: continental harvest-decision surfaces for the conterminous United States (v4.1, 2024)

Continental harvest-decision surfaces produced by the CONUS-HCS four-stage Bayesian hierarchical harvest-decision module, fit on remeasured USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) panel-pair data across all 48 conterminous states (452,887 plot pairs). The deposit contains ten Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs at 240 m for the 2024 reference year (annual partial-harvest probability, stand-replacement probability in continental and per-region forms, partial and clearcut removal intensity, and dominant silvicultural class with confidence for each regime) plus a per-species cut-propensity table.

Occurrence uses a complementary log-log link with a log-interval offset to place the mixed 5-year and 10-year FIA remeasurement cycles on a common annual hazard scale; the rare stand-replacement regime uses a King-Zeng case-control correction. Surfaces are projected to the continental grid using only covariates intrinsic to projected stand state, so they can be reproduced inside a forward projection and coupled to forest projection systems (FVS, LANDIS-II, CBM-CFS3, RPA). Note: the stand-replacement surface measures a forest-to-non-forest condition transition over the FIA interval, not silvicultural clearcut; see the README for the definitional caveat.

Version 4.1 adds a Species Value Index (SVI) surface: the basal-area-weighted mean of the per-species price-anchored stumpage value (normalized to a regional mean of one) derived from forest composition, provided at native 30 m and aggregated to 240 m and 960 m. The SVI is defined for the 30 major commercial species that carry Timber Products Output product allocations.