Market Structure and Sustainable Competitive Dynamics of the Peruvian Textile Sector in Global Trade

This study evaluated the market structure and sustainable competitive dynamics of the Peruvian textile sector in global trade during 2010-2024. A quantitative, non-experimental, and longitudinal design was applied using export records, concentration indicators, revealed symmetric comparative advantage, Markov transition analysis, the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and a gravity model estimated through EGLS with PCSE correction. The results show that the exported FOB value increased from USD 1,548.9 million in 2010 to USD 1,640.2 million in 2024, following a non-linear trajectory marked by a peak in 2012, a critical contraction in 2020, and a subsequent recovery. By tariff subheading, the export basket showed low concentration, with the HHI reaching 381 in 2024. Firm concentration declined from 4,251 to 1,901, indicating a transition from high to moderate concentration. Geographic concentration, however, increased from 2,256 to 2,771, reflecting strong dependence on the U.S. market, which accounted for 51.2% of exported value in 2024. Revealed competitiveness was positive in most analyzed markets, although structural disadvantages persisted in China, Japan, and Canada. The Markov matrices showed that trade and competitive positions tend to persist over time. The survival analysis revealed a different pattern: exporting firms are more fragile than destination markets. According to the gravity model, export dynamics are significantly explained by destination GDP, distance, and trade agreements. Overall, the Peruvian textile sector maintains competitive capabilities, but its sustainability is constrained by geographic concentration, firm turnover, and limited international diversification.