The Quantum Cryptanalysis of 2026: Resource Estimates, Censorship, and the Race to Q-Day — with QWAV Thermodynamic Critique

[v2.0 — Full QWAV Thermodynamic Integration] Analysis of March 2026 Google Quantum AI and Oratomic papers on Shor's algorithm resource estimates for secp256k1 elliptic curve cryptography, presented alongside QWAV's published thermodynamic critique of Shor scalability. CONTENTS: - Resource estimates: Google (≤1,200 logical qubits, ≤90M Toffoli gates; <500K physical qubits superconducting) and Oratomic (10K physical qubits, neutral atoms) - ZK-proof censorship: First use in academic publishing; hidden optimizations independently rediscovered by Schrottenloher (arXiv:2606.02235) within two months - ecdsa.fail: Crowdsourced optimization challenge achieving 15.1% improvement over Google's classified circuit (135 submissions, 35 solvers) - Q-Day timeline: Justin Drake 50% by 2032 vs. QWAV "never" (thermodynamic impossibility) - QWAV THERMODYNAMIC CRITIQUE (new in v2.0): Full analysis of Landauer-limited QEC scaling, precision scaling problem, five false assumptions in Shor's algorithm, Feynman-Shor quantum bifurcation - Post-quantum migration: Ethereum Foundation's leanVM, 2029 target, Proximity Prize, Poseidon Initiative - UNRESOLVED DEBATE: Is Shor's algorithm physically viable at cryptographically relevant scales? Google/Oratomic: yes (engineering). QWAV: no (thermodynamic). No experimental resolution at scale exists. QWAV prior work integrated: Feynman-Shor Quantum Bifurcation (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17977869), Post-Quantum Synthesis (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17184229), SHORS IS BUSTED internal analysis.