The Quantum Cryptanalysis of 2026: Resource Estimates, Censorship, and the Race to Q-Day

[v1.1 — Due Diligence corrected] Analysis of March 2026 Google Quantum AI and Oratomic papers on Shor's algorithm resource estimates for secp256k1 elliptic curve cryptography. Covers ZK-proof censorship, Schrottenloher's independent rediscovery (arXiv:2606.02235), the ecdsa.fail crowdsourced optimization challenge (15.1% improvement over Google), Justin Drake's Q-Day estimates (50% by 2032), and Ethereum Foundation's leanVM post-quantum migration plan. v1.1 CORRECTION: Prior QWAV research on the thermodynamic non-viability of Shor-scale quantum computing (DOIs: 10.5281/zenodo.17977869, 10.5281/zenodo.17184229) is now acknowledged and discussed. The initial due diligence missed archived internal work located outside the Discovery Index. The QWAV thermodynamic critique — arguing that Landauer's principle, scaling phase transitions, and qubit leakage errors make fault-tolerant Shor physically impossible — is presented as a counterpoint to the Google/Oratomic resource estimates.