Updated wild boar hunting yield abundance model at European scale

The aim of this report is to model the hunting yield (HY) density of wild boar across their distribution range in Europe using updated data by January 2026. As with previous HY-based models, the response variable was the maximum annual number of wild boar hunted during the 2015–2025 hunting seasons, divided by the area (km²) of the corresponding administrative or management unit (HY density). The data therefore represent the maximum potential, generally prior to the arrival of ASF in the affected countries. High-resolution spatial data over data series were prioritised. The model was statistically downscaled to make predictions for 10x10 km squares. Secondly, to calibrate the model output into densities (i.e. to predict wild boar density values), we used local wild boar densities (individuals per km², n = 110 values), which were considered reliable and obtained within the framework of the European Observatory of Wildlife (EOW). As with the HY model, the calibration plots showed good linear predictive performance, and our results were consistent with the expected abundance distribution of wild boar. The present model improves upon previous models in terms of prediction in northern areas (Fennoscandia), as expected due to the availability of higher-resolution data. The same pattern is maintained in southern Europe, where higher quality data has previously been consistently collected by ENETWILD. Therefore, predictions based on recent historical hunting yields (manual maximum) stabilised (new data does not manifestly improve predictions). However, the prediction pattern for large parts of Central Europe (mainly France and Germany) remains inconsistent due to the continued lack of high-resolution HY data, indicating the need to engage potential data providers in these regions of Europe and overcome issues, which has been addressed in a separate report.