State of African E-Commerce 2026

This paper contributes to the literature by providing a current-state synthesis of Africa's digital commerce market at a moment of structural transition — when mobile infrastructure, fintech payment rails, and social commerce are converging to reshape who participates in e-commerce and how.

Specifically, it contributes:

A consolidated market sizing framework across five anchor markets (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Egypt, South Africa) that reconciles conflicting estimates from Statista, Mordor Intelligence, TechCabal Insights, and Ecofin Agency — and explains why those figures differ.

An operational barrier analysis that goes beyond infrastructure checklists to examine the incentive structures and coordination failures that keep unit economics below Southeast Asian and Latin American comparables despite strong headline growth.

An analyst observations section that surfaces three gaps routinely missing from standard market reports: the unmeasured informal social commerce layer, the absence of public return and dispute rate data, and the distortive effect of currency devaluation on USD market size figures.

A forward-looking trend analysis identifying open banking, B2B marketplace scaling, and secondary-city micro-fulfillment as the three most consequential developments for practitioners and researchers through 2028.

The report is freely available and citable. Feedback and citations welcome.